The euro sign sculpture is pictured in front of the building that used to host the headquarters of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany. (AFP Photo/Daniel Roland)

London. A slump in commodities prices over the past month has pushed back expectations of when the European Central Bank will start normalizing its ultra-loose monetary policy by a whole year, to 2019.

Growth concerns in China, which accounts for almost half of global copper demand and 70 percent of iron ore consumption, have sent commodity prices tumbling in recent weeks.

The Thomson Reuters Commodities Research Bureau index slid 10 percent in July to its lowest levels since early 2009, when the world economy was mired in crisis and recession. Copper fell to six-year lows this week while oil also dipped close to its lowest in four months.

Such developments have reverberations across the world, hitting inflation and growth expectations. In the euro zone, the ECB’s preferred measure of the market’s inflation expectations fell to its lowest in nearly two months.

Accordingly, money markets see a heightened policy response. The ECB is now expected to marginally lift rates in four years, compared with three years a month ago.

Any delay in moves by the ECB to normalize the policy might be preceded by an extension of its trillion euro bond-buying program, due to end next year, traders and strategists say.

The quantitative easing (QE) scheme, was launched in March with a September 2016 end date, although the ECB has kept an open mind about its size and scope from the beginning.

“This surprise reaction is due to the fact that commodity prices have fallen quite markedly,” said Cyril Regnat, fixed income strategist at Natixis, referring to money market moves.

“We have these expectations of lower demand from China and … that leads to lower inflation expectations in Europe. The market is pricing in an extension of the current QE program.”

The International Monetary Fund warned on Monday that euro zone growth prospects were modest and urged the ECB to keep its money presses rolling.

With spot Eonia rates at about -0.11 percent, the zero level on the forward curve is widely considered the point at which the market is pricing in a rate hike, as it is assumed that any such move would reverse the ECB’s last rate cut, which was by 10 basis points.

Four-year Eonia rates are now zero. A month ago, it was three-year rates that traded at zero.

The speed with which the ECB hikes rates thereafter is also seen slowing. Ten-year Eonia rates have fallen to about 0.75 percent from roughly 1 percent a month ago.

More QE?

When banks have plenty of cash beyond what they need for day-to-day operations, as at present, Eonia rates usually stabilize at slightly less than 10 basis points above the ECB’s deposit rate, now set at -0.20 percent, and there is no indication this floor would be lowered further.

Excess liquidity in the euro system stands above 400 billion euros. Historically it has only had a notable impact on money market rates when it was below 100 billion.

Therefore it cannot be assumed that money markets are pricing in more QE. But this is what the market talks about.

“I recall that early on in the year we had discussions about tapering QE earlier now we talk about it being extended,” said Benjamin Schroeder, rate strategist at Commerzbank.

“Overall I think it is more likely it would be lengthened than shortened and the market has moved in that direction.”

The picture remains brighter than in March-April, however, when deflation fears meant the ECB was not expected to raise rates for six years.

Reuters

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President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi (left) and President of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem chat during the Eurogroup tour-de-table at Informal Meeting of Ministers for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECOFIN) in Riga, Latvia, 24 April 2015. (EPA Photo/Valda Kalnina)

London. Financial markets are betting that the threat of deflation in the euro zone has all but evaporated, calling into doubt forecasts that benchmark German government bond yields could drop to zero or even below.

A shift across European markets this week saw the euro chalk up its biggest rally in 3-1/2 years and the biggest rise in German yields for more than two.

Above-forecast April inflation figures in Germany on Wednesday — albeit still only 0.3 percent — were a major factor behind the surge yields.

One-year euro inflation swaps, which allow investors to protect themselves against the risk of rising prices, rose 10 basis points to 1.11 percent after the data, up from almost minus 1 percent at the start of the year.

Two-year swaps hit 1 percent, having fallen below zero in January.

Short-term inflation expectations have picked up as the euro zone economy has shown signs of gradual improvement, including the first expansion in private lending in three years, and reflects an almost 50 percent rise in oil prices from a low of $45 in January.

“Deflationary risks have definitely receded,” said Martin van Vliet, senior rate strategist at ING. “But the market still thinks that in the long term the ECB will have difficulty meeting its target.”

The European Central Bank will welcome this and a further pick-up in inflation as evidence its 1 trillion euro money printing scheme, launched to ward off the threat of a Japan-style cycle of persistently falling prices, is working.

But faster price growth could threaten a three-year-long trend of falling euro zone borrowing costs, particularly in Germany, where only last week 10-year Bund yields seemed destined to drop to zero or below.

Five-year, five-year euro breakeven forwards last traded at 1.76 percent. These measure where the market expects 2025 inflation forecasts to be in 2020 and are the ECB’s preferred measure of the market’s long-term expectations.

The number is fractionally below the year’s highest, touched just before the ECB launched its quantitative easing program, but still below the ECB inflation target of just under 2 percent.

Even 50-year inflation swaps, at 1.89 percent show markets do not see inflation returning to target for the foreseeable future.

Doubts

Yet, the bounce in short-term expectations is bringing into question a long-held view that ECB purchases would keep pushing yields lower, potentially turning Bund yields negative.

Ten-year Bund yields rose close to pre-QE levels of 0.38 percent on Thursday, having hit a record low 0.05 percent last week.

“(This) highlights the possibility that Bund yields would start trading at higher levels simply because the economy looks in better shape,” said Elwin de Groot, market economist at Rabobank.

“Those investors that were convinced that yields would fall to zero or even beyond … will now have doubts. Maybe this volatility itself, which is unlikely to disappear in the near term, may require higher yields.”

It is too early to conclude that Bund yields will never reach zero. That would require sustained economic recovery.

Many euro zone countries have debts bigger than their economies, making it hard for governments to support the recovery. Greece’s future in the euro zone is still in doubt.

And short-term inflation expectations depend significantly on oil price moves.

That leaves some seeing the recent moves as short-lived.

“We expect downward surprises in inflation in the summer. We’re not out of the woods yet. We think the current sell-off … is a temporary shake out, and we still expect deeply negative rates in 10-year Bunds,” said RBS rates analyst Marco Brancolini.

Reuters

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